Scottish Independence?

The people of Scotland, now a part of the United Kingdom, will decide in two days whether to divorce themselves from England.  Scots have a long history of resentment and justifiable anger toward the English, and Scots also have long memories.

Lately the "Yes" sentiment, favoring separation, has pulled ahead in the polls.  The Scots are said to favor Labor governments more than Conservative ones and to yearn for a Scandinavian-style democracy.

As is the case in most developed countries, Scotland's industrial economy has all but disappeared.  Its biggest economic claim is North Sea oil, which has made Aberdeen, in the northeast of Scotland, very rich over the last 30 years.  It is widely believed, though, that most of the oil has been pulled up and that future revenues will be much lower.

On the other hand, a petroleum geologist (and Yes supporter) at the University of Aberdeen claims that other, yet-unexplored drilling opportunities and more efficient technology applied to current fields will keep the oil money flowing at least until 2050.

Other than oil, Scotland's economy seems to depend on salmon, scotch whiskey and tourism.  And, given the Scottish climate, that last is always an iffy proposition.

Grandfather

Much of what I know about Scots I learned from my grandfather, who immigrated to the United States as a wee lad with his parents.

Grandfather had the engineering gene that seems to run in the water in Scotland.  He also was proud, stubborn as a coot and very careful with his money.

He worked as a welder, then as a welding inspector and then as a supervisor of welding inspectors.  He and his fellows were able to organize a welding union in San Francisco in the teeth of the Depression because they were that good at what they did.

Many years later, he drove me around the Bay Area and pointed out major construction projects where he had worked -- the Golden Gate Bridge, the Bay Bridge, the Bank of America headquarters and others.

When we passed the BofA building, he pointed out a big, geometric, shiny black sculpture near the entrance.  "We call that the banker's heart," he said.

As to negotiating for his union, he told me, "I never cared about entry-level pay.  I only worked for top scale."

Another point he made, about union decision-making, was this:  "If you want people to vote the way you expect them to vote, you call for a show of hands.  But if you want to know what they really think, you have a secret ballot."

Daniel Kahneman

I don't believe Prof. Kahneman is Scottish, but he wrote a pretty great book, Thinking, Fast and Slow,  published in 2011, that reprised the lessons he had gained from a career in behavioral economics.  If you haven't read it yet, I recommend it.

One of Kahneman's major points was risk aversion.  In experiment after experiment, he found that people were cautious.  When making bets, they placed much more value on not losing something small than on a chance to win something big.

Scotland Votes

The English have been appealing to the Scots to vote against separation.  They rely on arguments that boil down to, oh, please stay, we really really like being part of the same country with Scotland.

But the real arguments are probably economic.  What will Scotland use for currency if it strikes out on its own?  What will happen if Scotland's banks relocate to London?   Will enough taxes be collected to cover Scotland's currently generous level of public employment?  And what will happen if no more offshore oilfields prove out?

It may be that the Scots will vote to separate.  I haven't been in Scotland lately, and I am not in touch with people there.  And, as I have mentioned, they are a stubborn bunch and have mixed views toward the English even in the best of times.

But if I were a betting person -- and, given my grandfather, I certainly am not -- I would bet that the Scots will vote No and stay in the UK.  That they will be more worried about bad economic consequences than trusting in forecasts of oil revenues to come.

Plus this:  The vote will not be conducted by a show of hands, but by a secret ballet.